Thinking in Bets

A former World Series of Poker champion shows how to make better decisions when you can never have complete information. Duke brings together insights from cognitive psychology and years at the poker table to offer a practical framework for thinking under uncertainty.

Why Start Here

Duke’s core insight is that life is more like poker than chess. In chess, all the information is visible. In poker, and in business, you make decisions with incomplete information, and the outcome always involves some element of luck. She shows how we confuse good outcomes with good decision-making, and gives you tools to separate decision quality from outcome quality.

The book provides concrete tools: how to form a decision group that challenges your thinking, how to conduct a “premortem” before committing to a plan, and how to update your beliefs as new information arrives. These tools apply directly to any context where you face uncertainty.

What to Expect

A readable 288-page book that moves quickly. Duke writes in a conversational style with examples from poker, sports, business, and everyday life. This is the most accessible entry point into strategic decision-making. If reading about strategy feels intimidating, start here.